Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 19.669257 21.402596 23.319435 25.616735 28.323065 31.446305 35.378702
2024-10-20 16.834196 19.053084 21.684654 25.104862 29.544051 35.286987 43.612739
2024-10-27 15.578855 18.214410 21.531382 26.169095 32.780117 42.428819 58.962057
2024-11-03 14.195783 16.966227 20.599282 25.955710 34.164256 47.416843 74.005486
2024-11-10 13.222063 16.094174 19.993954 26.018151 35.888838 53.507016 95.703574
2024-11-17 12.477241 15.426169 19.552677 26.198618 37.792544 60.686706 127.974128
2024-11-24 11.846837 14.840411 19.138493 26.319242 39.587847 68.531961 176.292472
2024-12-01 11.219079 14.194936 18.552774 26.046391 40.559034 75.089880 239.441858
2024-12-08 10.742527 13.724866 18.177910 26.060581 42.091360 84.096617 364.058671
2024-12-15 10.270472 13.222987 17.700283 25.814777 43.007308 92.116453 577.027133
2024-12-22 9.847125 12.763480 17.246696 25.545181 43.803973 100.554896 1062.399540
2024-12-29 9.478041 12.361767 16.851514 25.329529 44.679540 110.297747 2980.187808
2025-01-05 9.144487 12.000283 16.503074 25.178576 45.745428 122.545688 NaN
2025-01-12 8.764757 11.546840 15.968829 24.599849 45.579476 129.377110 NaN
2025-01-19 8.676113 11.543641 16.196162 25.588685 50.006711 169.002469 NaN
2025-01-26 8.403120 11.231305 15.863869 25.365910 50.892671 189.552036 NaN
2025-02-02 8.192147 11.007498 15.670805 25.418183 52.672636 223.809211 NaN
2025-02-09 8.013114 10.825871 15.539081 25.588132 54.929140 274.670258 NaN
2025-02-16 7.838603 10.642638 15.391037 25.702445 57.076849 341.747618 NaN
2025-02-23 7.626251 10.387225 15.094558 25.439540 57.794049 397.093113 NaN
2025-03-02 7.462411 10.205435 14.923152 25.452858 59.610470 505.741150 NaN
2025-03-09 7.277835 9.981312 14.659572 25.216467 60.380879 612.651115 NaN
2025-03-16 7.101194 9.763928 14.397176 24.957221 61.003566 749.583534 NaN